More than one of every 10 people moving to Texas during the 2020 pandemic year was from California. Florida, Colorado, Illinois and Louisiana rounded out the top five states exporting people to the Lone Star State.
INFUTOR AND TEXAS REAL ESTATE RESEARCH CENTER AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY
We already knew that many of the transplants to Texas hail from California. Now we know just how many.
More than one of every 10 people moving to Texas during the 2020 pandemic year was from the Golden State, according to a study released this week by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.
In addition, California ranked as the top "move-to-Texas state" in 19 of the last 20 years, said Luis Torres, research economist at the center.
The only exception was 2005 when Hurricane Katrina pushed waves of Louisiana residents into the Lone Star State.
The share of Californians relocating to Texas has increased every year since 2011, Torres said.
Florida was the second-largest source of new Texans, with a 7.2% share — still less than half of the California influx. Rounding out the top five sources were Colorado, Illinois and Louisiana. International movers were not included in the study.
Another recent study quantifies the companies moving out of California, finding that for the first six months of 2021, the number of companies relocating their headquarters out of the state is running at twice the rate for 2020.
Some 265 companies moved their headquarters to other states from Jan. 1, 2018 through June 30, 2021, based on the date of the announcement or date of documentation with the state, whichever came first, according to a study by McKinney-based Spectrum Location Services and Stanford University's Hoover Institution.
"The losses are accelerating in that such relocations in the first half of 2021, which total 74, exceed that for all of 2020. Every month in 2021, twice as many companies are relocating their headquarters as in the prior year. The half-year monthly average for 2021 also significantly exceeds the monthly averages for 2018 and 2019."
For former California firms, Texas tops the popularity list, attracting 113 of the 265 companies, followed by Arizona and Nevada, according to Vranich and Ohanian's research.
North Texas landed 41 of the 113 companies, the Austin area won 57, the Houston area claimed nine and the San Antonio area lured six.
Shifting back to the migration of people, the majority of newcomers to Texas were from Los Angeles County, making up 3.1% of the total migration, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center's findings.
"This is not surprising since Los Angeles County is the most populated in California," Torres said. "Four other Southern Californian counties — San Diego, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino — made up the top 10 counties with residents moving to Texas."
"Contrary to popular belief, the majority of people moving from California are coming from the southern part of the state and not from Silicon Valley, which is farther north," Torres added.
Other U.S. counties in the top 10 sources of new Texans were Maricopa (Arizona), Cook (Illinois), Clark (Nevada), El Paso (Colorado), and King (Washington).
The influx of Californians in Dallas-Fort Worth has repercussions across a wide range of industries, including residential real estate, said Sharon Brown, general manager for DFW for Opendoor.
"California buyers are still coming in," Brown said. "They're still displacing folks who are moving out to the suburbs, getting bigger and better homes for their money."
A new poll reveals that 53% of California residents are considering leaving the Golden State because of the high cost of living.The "Trust Barometer" poll, by Edelman Intelligence, was conducted January 4-20 among 1,500 California residents, with a margin of error of 2.5%. A special oversample of 400 tech workers in the San Francisco Bay Area was also conducted, with a margin of error of 4.8%. The results are sobering. Nearly two-thirds, 62%, of respondents said they believed the best days of California were in the past. Nearly three-fourths of residents, 72%, say "cost and availability of housing is a very serious issue for California" — rising to 76% in the Bay Area. And 62% of residents say "homelessness is a very serious issue for California. The proportion in the Bay Area is the same. SFGate.com notes: "It appears the housing and homelessness crises have led to a pessimistic outlook."