There is much discussion regarding the Hispanic growth in Texas, but even more startling is the rapid growth of the Asian community, heavily concentrating in the Dallas and Houston suburbs. All-together, Asians had a 49 percent growth in Texas between 2010 and 2018, with an even faster acceleration in the past 2 years.
Asian (Green) Hispanic (Yellow) African American (Blue) White (Red)
By Brandon Cornett | January 18, 2019 | © HBI,
Recent forecasts for the real estate market in Dallas, Texas suggest that home prices in the area could rise faster than the national average in 2019. A separate forecast from Zillow ranked Dallas as one of the top ten "hottest" housing markets of 2019.
Bold Outlook for Dallas Housing Market in 2019
At the start of 2019, the median home value for Dallas, Texas was around $201,000. (The median for the broader DFW metro area was a bit higher.) That was a gain of more than 13% from a year earlier, according to data collected by Zillow.
Predictions from housing analysts point to continued home-price growth throughout 2019. In fact, the Dallas real estate market is expected to outperform the nation this year, in terms of annual home-value appreciation. Given the current rate of appreciation, it would not be surprising to see the median house price in Dallas rise somewhere between 7% and 10% over the next year.
Zillow's research team recently predicted that the median value in Dallas would climb by 11.2% over the next 12 months. That was a much bolder forecast than the one they issued for the nation as a whole, which predicted 6.4% growth.
Housing Supply on the Rise
Inventory is another important trend that could shape the Dallas-area housing market in 2019. This year, home buyers across the metro area could have more properties to choose from. At the end of 2018, the Dallas real estate market had more than a 4-month supply of homes for sale. That was a higher level of inventory than most metro areas across the U.S., and also higher than the national average during that same timeframe.
The key takeaway here is that housing inventory in Dallas (i.e., the number of homes listed for sale) increased during the latter part of 2018. As a result, buyers who enter the market this year should have more options when it comes to choosing a property.
Dallas Makes Zillow's "Hottest" List
In January, Zillow published a forecast that included what they felt would be the ten "hottest U.S. housing markets for 2019." Dallas was ranked at number seven on that list. To create their "hot list," Zillow examined a number of factors for the nation's 50 largest metro areas. They then combined these variables to create a "hotness" score. They looked for metro areas with strong income growth, growing populations, and low unemployment — among other factors.
A Cooling Trend Could Prevent Affordability Issues
The Dallas real estate market is something of a paradox right now, as we move into 2019. Home prices in the area continue to rise faster than the national average. At the same, however, there is clearly a cooling trend taking place.
Paige Shipp, regional director at MetroStudy, recently told The Dallas Morning News: "Dallas-Fort Worth, the nation's top new home market, is slowing from a frenzied, overheated pace to a more stable, normalized market. Builders and developers are hard at work delivering product to meet the strong demand for affordable new homes."
Dallas currently leads the nation in terms of new-home construction, according to MetroStudy and other sources. There were nearly 35,000 housing starts in the DFW area during the third quarter of 2018, more than any other metro. (A "housing start" is the beginning of construction for a house.)
If inventory continues to grow in this market — as expected — it will likely lead to smaller home-price gains in the future. And that's probably a good thing. When house prices rise at a much faster pace than local wages and income, it can create affordability problems. So a cooling trend could actually be beneficial at this point.
Disclaimer: This article includes housing market predictions for the Dallas-Forth Worth metro area in 2019. They were provided by third parties not associated with the Home Buying Institute. Real estate forecasts are the equivalent of an educated and are far from certain.
NOTES: Median home price is based on Q1 2018. Home price to income is calculated using median home price and median family income. SOURCES: Synergos Technologies, Realtor.com, Moody's Analytics, NOAA, Ed.gov. Illustrations by Martin Laksman. For full Best Places to Live methodology, see money.com/BPLmethodology.
Money is the latest national publication to sing the praises of Frisco, listing the North Texas suburb as No. 1 in its 2018 best places to live report. After compiling data on everything from school graduation rates to median home prices, the fast-growing community north of Dallas beat out 582 other communities -- many of them suburbs -- to claim the top spot. One of the highest grades in the report went to Frisco's education system. "With more than 70 campuses, the Frisco Independent School District has the highest graduation rate of all the cities and towns Money evaluated this year," the report said. Frisco's graduation rate is 98 percent.
It lists Frisco's population as about 179,000, its median family income as $129,118 and its median home price as $349,000. In explaining its methodology, the finance-focused publication looked only at places with populations of 50,000 or greater. "We eliminated any place that had more than double the national crime risk, less than 85 percent of its state's median household income, or a lack of ethnic diversity. This gave us 583 places," Money said."We put the greatest weight on economic health, public school performance, and local amenities. Housing, cost of living, and diversity were also critical components," it said. The methodology information listed online did not say how the study's authors defined "lack of ethnic diversity." Frisco's population is 75 percent white, according to Frisco.com.
Money also lauded Frisco for it public-private partnerships -- particularly the Ford Center at The Star. That athletic facility, built as part of a partnership with schools, the city and the Dallas Cowboys, doubles as a place for school football games and a practice field for the NFL team. The Star also serves as the Cowboys' headquarters.
Frisco, Allen and McKinney routinely show up on "best of" lists. In 2016, career expert website Zippia named Frisco as the most successful city in America.The only other Texas city in Money's top 25 was Flower Mound, which ranked 16th.
Frisco, for the first time in at least five years, topped the U.S. Census bureau's list of fastest-growing big cities in the nation, adding an average of 37 new residents every day for a population jump of 8.2 percent, data released Thursday showed. The booming Dallas suburb also landed in the ninth spot in terms of the raw number of residents it added over the year that ended in July -- an impressive feat for a city that, at 177,286 people, is still relatively small. The 14 largest cities in the country didn't change from the prior year. Which means that Texas surpassed California's share of the top 15 list, with five cities making the cut. California -- which has about 11 million more residents than the Lone Star State overall -- had four.
The Dallas-Fort Worth region, once again, added the most new residents of any metro area in the country -- roughly 400 per day, or a total of 146,238, over the year that ended in July, census data released Thursday shows. That kept D-FW firmly in its spot as the nation's fourth-largest metro, though the region is catching up to Chicago, whose population has been sliding as economic factors tip the scales in favor of Texas, experts say. The thousands of people moving in both from other states and abroad have powered a population boom in Texas and especially in D-FW, where leaders have made a point of pitching its relatively low costs of living and business-friendly regulatory environment to companies located elsewhere. On the list of the counties that saw the biggest gains over the year, six out of 10 were in Texas, including Denton and Collin counties, which were ninth and 10th, respectively.
"When [Collin and Denton] were smaller, they were up in the top 10 in terms of the rate of growth, and now they're cracking the top 10 in terms of numeric growth because the foundation is there," he said. "The economic development that's going on up there is drawing migrants into those counties."
That, he said, is where the Chicago area seems to be struggling.As of January, Chicago's annual job growth had been the slowest of any of the nation's 12 biggest metro areas. In that same report, D-FW ranked second, behind Phoenix, which also added thousands of residents last year. Meanwhile, the Chicago metro lost more than 13,000 residents. Cook County, which is home to Chicago, lost the most people of any county in the country. Potter said he couldn't pinpoint an exact time when D-FW will surpass Chicago, it's possible that it could happen in coming decades. "It depends on what happens in Chicago -- if they continue to lose population and if D-FW continues the pace that it is," he said. "We could see it in the next decade or the one after."
According to projections from Potter's office based on growth trends from 2000 to 2010, D-FW's population is expected to grow to almost 10 million by 2030. And experts don't expect that to slow anytime soon. Still, Potter said that as living costs rise in D-FW and decline in Chicago with shifting demand, some of the differences between the two metros could even out.
The D-FW area added more than 100,000 jobs in the year ended in March, according to preliminary figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So far in 2018, D-FW has stayed near the top of the list of U.S. cities with the fastest-growing employment sectors. Job gains in North Texas have topped 100,000 a year for more than four years — an unprecedented economic boom. As long as companies keep bringing so many new jobs to the area, the real estate market will continue to thrive. Add to the jobs, the surge in population growth. Last year, D-FW grew by more than 146,000 people — more than any other major U.S. metro market. More than half of that population gain was from people moving to the area to fill all those newly created jobs.
- Dallas Morning News, May 4, 2018